12
Al Ska
5yo Filly · 8-7
Senonnes-Pouance · Prix Du Chateau Handicap · 1m 2f 96y
#11
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength11%
What the class read says
Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.6 /10 (raw 7.8)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 4
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | Deauville | 3 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2025-10-09 | Saint-Cloud | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-09-26 | Saint-Cloud | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-08-25 | Clairefontaine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-08-06 | Clairefontaine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-06-25 | Chateaubriant | ? | 16th | 16th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 129% of fieldRange 6-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength10%
Delivery trend -4.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/11/2024 | 3rd | 80/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 23/05/2025 | 12th | 20/1 | 0% | 21% | +0.21 |
| 25/06/2025 | 16th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 06/08/2025 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 73% | +0.58 |
| 25/08/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 93% | +0.56 |
| 26/09/2025 | 9th | 6/1 | 68% | 33% | -0.35 |
| 09/10/2025 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 64% | +0.12 |
| 16/08/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 47% | +0.47 |