4
Buffalo Woman
4yo Filly · 9-5
Senonnes-Pouance · Prix Du Chateau Handicap · 1m 2f 96y
#4
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
9%
Place Prob
12%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Vichy | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-11-08 | Lyon La Soie | ? | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2025-10-14 | Chantilly | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-10-06 | Le Mans | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-09-05 | Chantilly | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2025-08-17 | Le Touquet | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1282% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength67%
Delivery trend +1.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/07/2025 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 80% | +0.38 |
| 27/07/2025 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 78% | -0.06 |
| 07/08/2025 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 71% | -0.13 |
| 17/08/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 05/09/2025 | 7th | 17/2 | 55% | 45% | -0.10 |
| 06/10/2025 | 10th | 16/1 | 16% | 36% | +0.20 |
| 14/10/2025 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 08/11/2025 | 14th | 11/1 | 42% | 0% | -0.42 |
| 03/09/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 46% | +0.46 |