3
Cannello
10yo Gelding · 9-5
Senonnes-Pouance · Prix Du Chateau Handicap · 1m 2f 96y
#8
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength30%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.4 /10 (raw 6.4)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Craon | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-16 | Deauville | 3 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-08-02 | Le Lion D'angers | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | ParisLongchamp | 3 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-06-28 | Saint-Cloud | 3 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-06-14 | Chantilly | 3 | 11th | 10th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1245% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength100%
Delivery trend +1.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/03/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 07/05/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 02/06/2026 | 10th | 16/1 | 16% | 25% | +0.09 |
| 14/06/2026 | 11th | 25/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 28/06/2026 | 10th | 40/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 14/07/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 02/08/2026 | 4th | 28/1 | 0% | 79% | +0.79 |
| 16/08/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 86% | +0.86 |
| 05/09/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |