11
Dahariz
4yo Gelding · 8-9
Senonnes-Pouance · Prix Du Chateau Handicap · 1m 2f 96y
#2
Rank
Odds
13/2
Win Prob
26%
Place Prob
20%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲5731
Strength23%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6882.9 /10 (raw 7.0)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5735.0
Today: 4
Class gap: -5731.0
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Craon | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-29 | Clairefontaine | 3 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-08-06 | Deauville | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-22 | Saint-Malo | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Deauville | 34392 | 7th | 41273th | −34388 |
| 2026-07-02 | ParisLongchamp | 3 | 13th | 12th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 12100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +9.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/03/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 09/04/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 78% | +0.09 |
| 21/04/2026 | 13th | 6/1 | 68% | 8% | -0.61 |
| 02/07/2026 | 13th | 28/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 12/07/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 22/07/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 75% | +0.49 |
| 06/08/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 64% | +0.17 |
| 29/08/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 87% | +0.71 |
| 05/09/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |