5
Kamakura One
5yo Filly · 9-3
Senonnes-Pouance · Prix Du Chateau Handicap · 1m 2f 96y
#10
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength36%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.4 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Saint-Cloud | 3 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-08-16 | Deauville | 3 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-08-02 | Le Lion D'angers | 4 | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | ParisLongchamp | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Compiegne | 3 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-06-11 | ParisLongchamp | 3 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1227% of fieldRange 1-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength53%
Delivery trend +3.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/12/2025 | 10th | 7/1 | 63% | 31% | -0.32 |
| 23/01/2026 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 18/02/2026 | 13th | 18/1 | 5% | 0% | -0.05 |
| 11/06/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 20/06/2026 | 7th | 22/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 09/07/2026 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 44% | +0.39 |
| 02/08/2026 | 14th | 14/1 | 26% | 13% | -0.13 |
| 16/08/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 93% | +0.93 |
| 31/08/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 64% | -0.09 |