7
Mercaline
4yo Filly · 10-7
Senonnes-Pouance · Prix M.t.m. Stakes · 1m 6f 200y
#3
Rank
Odds
16/10
Win Prob
9%
Place Prob
16%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-26 | Auteuil | 2 | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-04-01 | La Teste De Buch | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-13 | Senonnes-Pouance | ? | 5th | 9th | −4 |
| 2025-10-15 | Nantes | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-08-18 | Saint-Malo | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength100%
Delivery trend +1.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/08/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 75% | +0.38 |
| 15/10/2025 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 13/03/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 01/04/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 26/05/2026 | 5th | 18/1 | 5% | 20% | +0.15 |