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4

Melchior Kergador

4yo Gelding · 10-7

Senonnes-Pouance · Prix Des Dragages Du Val De Loire Stakes · 1m 6f 200y

#8

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 7.3 /10 (raw 7.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Lignieres 07/04/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR - · 1m3f204y Sft 1437/04C5C5 @ Moulins 09/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR - · 1m5f202y Hvy 1439/05C5C5 @ Moulins 28/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR - · 1m5f202y Sft 14728/08C5projClass-projected finish: 4th of 4
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-28Moulins?4th4th0
2026-05-09Moulins?9th9th0
2026-04-07Lignieres?9th9th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today7/049/0528/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1056% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +27.8% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
07/04/20269th40/10%11%+0.11
09/05/20269th33/10%20%+0.20
28/08/20264th20/10%67%+0.67