12
L'espoir Des Baux
5yo Gelding · 0-0
Vichy · Prix Alain David Ads Evenements (cher) - Attele · 1m 2f 151y
#13
Rank
Odds
40/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼5
Strength0%
What the class read says
Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.0
Today: 5
Class gap: +5.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Vichy | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-26 | Lyon-Parilly | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-16 | Chartres | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2024-11-13 | Mauquenchy | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2024-08-07 | Saint-Malo | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2024-07-24 | Enghien | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 1620% of fieldRange 2-16 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength38%
Delivery trend +7.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 13th of 16. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/05/2024 | 7th | 15/8 | 90% | 25% | -0.65 |
| 09/06/2024 | 6th | 15/8 | 90% | 50% | -0.40 |
| 30/06/2024 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 24/07/2024 | 5th | 28/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 07/08/2024 | 9th | 11/4 | 86% | 20% | -0.66 |
| 13/11/2024 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 40% | +0.14 |
| 16/10/2025 | 7th | 80/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 26/04/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 93% | +0.17 |
| 16/05/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 88% | -0.02 |