Americathegreat
3yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 93
Woodbine · Race 10 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 2.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-26 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-09-27 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-08-29 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-06-29 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -1.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/05/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 86% | +0.07 |
| 29/06/2025 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 57% | -0.27 |
| 29/08/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 83% | +0.10 |
| 27/09/2025 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 26/10/2025 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 40% | -0.26 |
| 04/07/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 75% | -0.09 |
| 01/08/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 83% | -0.06 |