1
Celebrity Warrior
3yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 89
Woodbine · Race 10 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m
#2
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
7%
Place Prob
20%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.0
Today:
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-04 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-04-12 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-02-21 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-01-18 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2025-10-31 | Del Mar | ? | 8th | 2nd | +5 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1383% of fieldRange 5-13 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength34%
Delivery trend -5.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08/2025 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 86% | +0.25 |
| 27/09/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 86% | +0.02 |
| 31/10/2025 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 18/01/2026 | 6th | 15/8 | 90% | 55% | -0.36 |
| 21/02/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 43% | -0.43 |
| 12/04/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 73% | -0.15 |
| 04/07/2026 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 25% | -0.41 |
| 15/08/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |