11
Faith Understood
5yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 91
Woodbine · Race 10 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m
#11
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength21%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Woodbine | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-02-21 | Gulfstream | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1350% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength76%
Delivery trend +1.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/08/2025 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 27/12/2025 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 24/01/2026 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 21/02/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 30/05/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 22% | -0.15 |
| 20/06/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 11/07/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 01/08/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 22/08/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 75% | +0.49 |