4
Lazy Y Collection
3yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 80
Woodbine · Race 10 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.1
Today:
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-04 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-06-13 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-16 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1367% of fieldRange 2-13 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength24%
Delivery trend -3.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 67% | +0.09 |
| 13/06/2026 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 82% | +0.82 |
| 04/07/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 38% | +0.22 |
| 05/09/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |