3
Talbot's Riplyn
4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 89
Woodbine · Race 10 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m
#7
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-05 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-07-12 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2024-11-30 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1325% of fieldRange 10-13 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -7.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/11/2024 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 12/07/2025 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 30/05/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 78% | -0.01 |
| 05/07/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 30/07/2026 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 25% | -0.46 |