5
Tracy Arm
3yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 85
Woodbine · Race 10 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m
#6
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.1
Today:
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-26 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-06-13 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-05-23 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-12-14 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-11-15 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1375% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength64%
Delivery trend +7.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/11/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 14/12/2025 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 40% | -0.28 |
| 23/05/2026 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 13/06/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 26/07/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 14/08/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |