2
Waitingforaholiday
3yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 69
Woodbine · Race 2 - Claiming · 7f
#3
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-14 | Woodbine | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-03 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength84%
Delivery trend +0.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 57% | +0.10 |
| 26/10/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 67% | +0.51 |
| 16/11/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 03/05/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 17% | -0.41 |
| 16/05/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 07/06/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 20% | -0.06 |
| 24/07/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 14/08/2026 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 28/08/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 40% | +0.14 |