1
Zimbawee
5yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 60
Woodbine · Race 2 - Claiming · 7f
#7
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength73%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 7.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Fort Erie | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-07-28 | Fort Erie | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-30 | Fort Erie | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2026-06-21 | Fort Erie | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2026-04-25 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-03-25 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 3-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength21%
Delivery trend -0.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/01/2026 | 11th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 22/02/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 08/03/2026 | 1st | 33/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 25/03/2026 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 25/04/2026 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 21/06/2026 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 30/06/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 28/07/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 30/08/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |