Lita Marie
4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 66
Woodbine · Race 3 - Maiden Optional Claiming · 1m 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 5.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-26 | Woodbine | ? | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-07-05 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-07-26 | Woodbine | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -14.5% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07/2025 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 05/07/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 83% | +0.23 |
| 26/07/2026 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 06/08/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 86% | +0.07 |
| 27/08/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 29% | -0.35 |