6
Lotta Gems
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 68
Woodbine · Race 3 - Maiden Optional Claiming · 1m 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength12%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.4
Today:
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-03 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-12-13 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength36%
Delivery trend -15.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/12/2025 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 63% | +0.05 |
| 03/05/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 40% | +0.24 |
| 11/06/2026 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 14% | -0.65 |
| 26/07/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 29% | -0.19 |