Really Big Show
4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 72
Woodbine · Race 3 - Maiden Optional Claiming · 1m 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
96%
Place Prob
71%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 4.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-12-14 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +0.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/11/2025 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 14/12/2025 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 23/05/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 11/06/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 29% | +0.13 |
| 04/07/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 23/07/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 57% | +0.10 |
| 27/08/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 71% | +0.24 |