4
Category Five
3yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 77
Woodbine · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-29 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-11-22 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength90%
Delivery trend +6.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/09/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 22/11/2025 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 20% | -0.62 |
| 29/05/2026 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 26/06/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 20/07/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 07/08/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 50% | -0.16 |
| 28/08/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |