Draw Boot
5yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 76
Woodbine · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
5%
Place Prob
12%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 5.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Woodbine | ? | 11th | 10th | +1 |
| 2026-05-23 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2024-11-15 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -9.1% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/10/2024 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 15/11/2024 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 23/05/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 12/06/2026 | 11th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 24/07/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 07/08/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 75% | -0.04 |
| 06/09/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 43% | -0.15 |