5
Knowing
5yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 74
Woodbine · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-22 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | Woodbine | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-10 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 2-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength31%
Delivery trend -8.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/11/2025 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 12/12/2025 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 09/05/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 07/06/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 19/06/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 10/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 80% | +0.09 |
| 24/07/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 22/08/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 60% | -0.11 |
| 11/09/2026 | 5th | 2/1 | 89% | 0% | -0.89 |