Padraig
4yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 68
Woodbine · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
37%
Place Prob
32%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 3.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | Woodbine | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2025-12-13 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2025-11-30 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2025-11-08 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -1.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09/2025 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 17% | -0.46 |
| 23/10/2025 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 67% | +0.09 |
| 08/11/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 83% | -0.05 |
| 30/11/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |
| 13/12/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 88% | +0.11 |
| 06/07/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 24/07/2026 | 10th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 22/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 80% | -0.13 |