Madame Obey
4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 94
Woodbine · Race 5 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
12%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-06 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-10-11 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2025-08-16 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-06-28 | Woodbine | ? | +5 | ||
| 2025-05-18 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -5.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/12/2024 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 14/02/2025 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 71% | -0.15 |
| 18/05/2025 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 40% | -0.36 |
| 16/08/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 86% | +0.09 |
| 11/10/2025 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 14% | -0.33 |
| 06/06/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 06/07/2026 | 5th | 9/4 | 88% | 33% | -0.55 |