2
Hard To Capture
7yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 84
Woodbine · Race 6 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: -1.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-07-10 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-06-06 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 8th | −2 |
| 2026-05-22 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-08 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 925% of fieldRange 4-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength34%
Delivery trend +2.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10/2025 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 67% | -0.02 |
| 26/10/2025 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 40% | -0.44 |
| 20/11/2025 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 75% | +0.22 |
| 08/05/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 67% | +0.01 |
| 22/05/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 83% | +0.18 |
| 06/06/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 17% | +0.01 |
| 10/07/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 06/08/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 75% | +0.22 |
| 29/08/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 33% | -0.19 |