IvyArcIvyArc
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Mobula

4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 83

Woodbine · Race 6 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f

#3

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

8%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 3.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: -1.3
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC7 @ Woodbine 12/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 80 · 6f Fas 122 · below its mark12/10/2025 · OR 80 par12/10C7OR 80C8 @ Woodbine 01/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 80 · 6f 123 · below its mark01/11/2025 · OR 80 parC8 @ Woodbine 08/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 86 · 7f 123 · below its mark08/11/2025 · OR 86 par8/11C8OR 86C8 @ Woodbine 27/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 85 · 6f110y Fas 123 · beat its mark27/11/2025 · OR 85 parC8 @ Woodbine 08/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 82 · 6f110y 123 · below its mark08/05/2026 · OR 82 par8/05C8OR 82C8 @ Woodbine 30/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 81 · 6f Fas 123 · below its mark30/05/2026 · OR 81 parC7 @ Woodbine 11/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 84 · 6f Fas 122 · below its mark11/06/2026 · OR 84 par11/06C7OR 84C7 @ Woodbine 18/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 80 · 6f 122 · beat its mark18/07/2026 · OR 80 parC6 @ Woodbine 16/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 83 · 6f110y Fas 125 · below its mark16/08/2026 · OR 83 par16/08C6OR 83projClass-projected finish: 6th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-16Woodbine?3rd3rd0
2026-07-18Woodbine?1st2nd−1
2026-06-11Woodbine?3rd4th−1
2026-05-30Woodbine?6th8th−2
2026-05-08Woodbine?2nd4th−2
2025-11-27Woodbine?1st3rd−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/1027/1111/0616/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 2-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength43%

Delivery trend -3.1% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/10/20254th14/126%50%+0.24
01/11/20254th10/382%63%-0.20
08/11/20252nd5/287%83%-0.04
27/11/20251st9/276%100%+0.24
08/05/20262nd11/893%80%-0.13
30/05/20266th6/492%0%-0.92
11/06/20263rd6/168%60%-0.08
18/07/20261st13/891%100%+0.09
16/08/20263rd4/179%67%-0.12