7
Refinement
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 81
Woodbine · Race 6 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#8
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength6%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-04 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-11 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-16 | Woodbine | ? | 10th | 11th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 950% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +30.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/2026 | 10th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 11/06/2026 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 86% | +0.86 |
| 04/07/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 57% | -0.17 |
| 01/08/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |