4
Souper Sporty
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 80
Woodbine · Race 6 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength44%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.2
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Fort Erie | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-07-26 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-06-21 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-05-23 | Woodbine | ? | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2026-04-25 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2025-11-22 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 913% of fieldRange 2-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength34%
Delivery trend +3.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08/2025 | 5th | 11/8 | 93% | 56% | -0.37 |
| 11/09/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 19/10/2025 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 75% | +0.17 |
| 22/11/2025 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 29% | -0.19 |
| 25/04/2026 | 6th | 10/3 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 23/05/2026 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 21/06/2026 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 26/07/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 75% | +0.09 |
| 07/09/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 50% | -0.08 |