2
Orderofthephoenix
5yo Mare · 8-9 · OR 94
Woodbine · Race 8 - Sweet Briar Too Stakes · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.4
Today:
Class gap: -0.9
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-07-03 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-05-29 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-04-26 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2024-11-28 | Gulfstream | ? | 10th | 11th | −1 |
| 2024-10-25 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 814% of fieldRange 6-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -5.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/05/2024 | 3rd | 22/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 24/08/2024 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 29% | -0.45 |
| 04/09/2024 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 78% | +0.51 |
| 25/10/2024 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 63% | -0.26 |
| 28/11/2024 | 10th | 3/1 | 84% | 18% | -0.66 |
| 26/04/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |
| 29/05/2025 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 50% | -0.38 |
| 03/07/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 31/05/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |