3
Without Cause
5yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 96
Woodbine · Race 8 - Sweet Briar Too Stakes · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.4
Today:
Class gap: -0.9
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-02-07 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-07-19 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-06-07 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-03-22 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-02-28 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength85%
Delivery trend +1.8% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 2nd of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/02/2024 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 78% | -0.10 |
| 23/03/2024 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 82% | -0.04 |
| 17/05/2024 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 33% | -0.38 |
| 28/02/2025 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 22/03/2025 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 60% | -0.26 |
| 07/06/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 19/07/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 83% | -0.05 |
| 07/02/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 29% | -0.19 |
| 17/05/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |