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5

Z Z's

3yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 94

Woodbine · Race 8 - Sweet Briar Too Stakes · 6f

#2

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

61%

Place Prob

41%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 3.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Ellis Park 26/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR - · 5f110y Fm 11926/07C6C5 @ Kentucky Downs 07/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 91 · 6f110y 120 · below its mark07/09/2025 · OR 91 par7/09C5OR 91C5 @ Churchill Downs 12/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 92 · 5f110y Fm 118 · below its mark12/06/2026 · OR 92 par12/06C5OR 92C6 @ Woodbine 18/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 94 · 5f Fm 119 · below its mark18/07/2026 · OR 94 par18/07C6OR 94C6 @ Woodbine 16/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 91 · 6f110y Fas 120 · beat its mark16/08/2026 · OR 91 par16/08C6OR 91projClass-projected finish: 4th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-16Woodbine?1st2nd−1
2026-07-18Woodbine?2nd3rd−1
2026-06-12Churchill Downs?5th6th−1
2025-09-07Kentucky Downs?6th6th0
2025-07-26Ellis Park?1st3rd−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/077/0912/0618/0716/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength62%

Delivery trend +1.0% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 8.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/07/20251st11/486%100%+0.14
07/09/20256th4/179%50%-0.29
12/06/20265th5/287%50%-0.37
18/07/20262nd11/486%83%-0.02
16/08/20261st6/594%100%+0.06