2
Friendly Ghost
5yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 95
Woodbine · Race 9 - Durham Cup Stakes - Grade 3 · 1m 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲5
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 11.2 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: -4.9
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 9th | −5 |
| 2026-08-09 | Woodbine | ? | 9th | 15th | −5 |
| 2026-06-21 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 7th | −5 |
| 2026-05-30 | Woodbine | ? | 8th | 14th | −5 |
| 2025-10-25 | Woodbine | ? | 8th | 14th | −5 |
| 2025-09-28 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 9th | −5 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 50% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength43%
Delivery trend -1.3% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 5th of 5.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08/2024 | 11th | 33/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 07/09/2024 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 71% | +0.03 |
| 24/08/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 28/09/2025 | 3rd | 5/4 | 93% | 71% | -0.22 |
| 25/10/2025 | 8th | 5/2 | 87% | 13% | -0.74 |
| 30/05/2026 | 8th | 8/1 | 58% | 13% | -0.45 |
| 21/06/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 09/08/2026 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 11% | -0.05 |
| 30/08/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |