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Maycocks Bay

5yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 114

Woodbine · Race 9 - Durham Cup Stakes - Grade 3 · 1m 110y

#1

Rank

Odds

3/5

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

91%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲3
Strength32%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 3.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.2
Today:
Class gap: -2.6
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Fair Grounds 07/12/2024 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 93 · 1m110y Fas 117 · beat its mark07/12/2024 · OR 93 par7/12C6OR 93C1 @ Fair Grounds 18/01/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 98 · 1m110y Slo 118 · beat its mark18/01/2025 · OR 98 parC1 @ Fair Grounds 15/02/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 104 · 1m110y Fas 118 · beat its mark15/02/2025 · OR 104 par15/02C1OR 104C5 @ Oaklawn Park 29/03/2025 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 108 · 1m110y Gd 117 · below its mark29/03/2025 · OR 108 parC6 @ Fair Grounds 21/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 105 · 1m110y Fm 120 · below its mark21/02/2026 · OR 105 par21/02C6OR 105C5 @ Keeneland 16/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 108 · 1m110y Fm 118 · below its mark16/04/2026 · OR 108 parC0 @ Woodbine 30/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 110 · 1m110y Fas 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/05/2026 · OR 110 par30/05C?OR 110C0 @ Woodbine 19/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 108 · 7f110y Fm 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/07/2026 · OR 108 parC0 @ Kentucky Downs 29/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 1m Fm 12029/08C?projClass-projected finish: 1st of 4
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-29Kentucky Downs?2nd2nd0
2026-07-19Woodbine?3rd3rd+0
2026-05-30Woodbine?1st1st+0
2026-04-16Keeneland?3rd8th−4
2026-02-21Fair Grounds?2nd8th−5
2025-03-29Oaklawn Park?5th10th−4

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today7/1229/0330/0529/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 5100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength93%

Delivery trend -2.8% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 1st of 5. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
07/12/20241st1/195%100%+0.05
18/01/20254th14/126%57%+0.31
15/02/20253rd14/126%71%+0.45
29/03/20255th7/163%50%-0.13
21/02/20262nd8/158%83%+0.25
16/04/20263rd5/287%71%-0.15
30/05/20261st6/492%100%+0.08
19/07/20263rd15/890%71%-0.19
29/08/20262nd13/266%86%+0.20