4
Sedburys Ghost
4yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 104
Woodbine · Race 9 - Durham Cup Stakes - Grade 3 · 1m 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲4
Strength14%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 7.8 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.4
Today:
Class gap: -3.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 10th | −4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 8th | −5 |
| 2026-06-13 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 11th | −5 |
| 2026-05-17 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 8th | −5 |
| 2025-11-21 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 8th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 550% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +8.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 5. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08/2025 | 11th | 5/1 | 74% | 17% | -0.57 |
| 28/09/2025 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 25% | -0.12 |
| 26/10/2025 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 21/11/2025 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 71% | -0.18 |
| 17/05/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 80% | +0.19 |
| 13/06/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 43% | -0.05 |
| 04/07/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 88% | +0.24 |
| 01/08/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 71% | +0.45 |
| 30/08/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 60% | -0.06 |