5
War Court
8yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 108
Woodbine · Race 9 - Durham Cup Stakes - Grade 3 · 1m 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲3
Strength8%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 7.6 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.9
Today:
Class gap: -3.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 13th | −5 |
| 2025-11-30 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 7th | −5 |
| 2025-08-02 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 7th | −5 |
| 2025-07-06 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 9th | −5 |
| 2023-12-03 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 525% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength79%
Delivery trend +3.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 5. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07/2023 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 71% | +0.00 |
| 24/08/2023 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 07/10/2023 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |
| 03/12/2023 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 69% | -0.07 |
| 06/07/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 71% | +0.35 |
| 02/08/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 30/11/2025 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 20/06/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 25% | -0.12 |
| 01/08/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |