1
William T
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 99
Woodbine · Race 9 - Durham Cup Stakes - Grade 3 · 1m 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲5
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 8.5 /10 (raw 2.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: -4.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 7th | −5 |
| 2026-08-02 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 8th | −5 |
| 2026-07-06 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 8th | −5 |
| 2026-06-14 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 8th | −5 |
| 2026-05-17 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 8th | −5 |
| 2025-08-16 | Woodbine | ? | 8th | 13th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 575% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength80%
Delivery trend -0.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 5.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/05/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 83% | +0.02 |
| 01/06/2025 | 3rd | 4/5 | 96% | 60% | -0.36 |
| 13/07/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 16/08/2025 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 42% | +0.26 |
| 17/05/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 83% | -0.05 |
| 14/06/2026 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 75% | -0.18 |
| 06/07/2026 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 80% | -0.12 |
| 02/08/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 80% | -0.09 |
| 23/08/2026 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |