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18:45 · Churchill Downs

Race 5 - Starter Allowance

7f3YO plusDIRT8 runners
Ordered by projected finish
4
Market FavTop Pick1
OR 105
1/1
Air Of Defiance silks

Crown And Thistle Stable, Llc

Air Of Defiance

5yo Gelding · 8-9

Quality Road - Faypien (Ghostzapper)

Francisco Arrieta1/2S Cunningham60%
231132
8.0

Class Advantage

5/02 · C7 · finish vs mark above5/02 · mark par5/0214/03 · C7 · finish vs mark below14/03 · mark par22/04 · C7 · finish vs mark below22/04 · mark par15/05 · C7 · finish vs mark above15/05 · mark par11/06 · C7 · finish vs mark above11/06 · mark par12/07 · C7 · finish vs mark below12/07 · mark par12/07projClass-projected finish: 1st of 8
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength13%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 7f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 1 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 100%5/02Pos 2 · SP 7/4 | Expected: 91%Pos 2 · SP 7/4 | Actual: 83%Pos 3 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 3 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 60%22/04Pos 1 · SP 5/4 | Expected: 93%Pos 1 · SP 5/4 | Actual: 100%Pos 1 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 1 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 100%11/06Pos 3 · SP 5/2 | Expected: 87%Pos 3 · SP 5/2 | Actual: 60%12/07
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength84%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -6.5%Ahead 2/4
5
2
OR 91
4/1
Saltwater Cowboy silks

Gokmen Kaya

Saltwater Cowboy

5yo Horse · 8-9

Mastery - Tex Appeal (Successful Appeal)

Luis Saez60%Carlos David60%
726317
5.0

Class Advantage

26/05 · C6 (higher class) · finish vs mark below26/05 · mark par26/0517/09 · C8 · finish vs mark below17/09 · mark par10/06 · C8 · finish vs mark below10/06 · mark par19/06 · C8 · finish vs mark below19/06 · mark par8/08 · C8 · finish vs mark above8/08 · mark par12/09 · C7 · finish vs mark below12/09 · mark par12/09projClass-projected finish: 6th of 8
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 7f · 83%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 7 · SP 13/8 | Expected: 91%Pos 7 · SP 13/8 | Actual: 0%26/05Pos 2 · SP 11/4 | Expected: 86%Pos 2 · SP 11/4 | Actual: 88%Pos 6 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 6 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 0%10/06Pos 3 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 3 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 60%Pos 1 · SP 15/8 | Expected: 90%Pos 1 · SP 15/8 | Actual: 100%8/08Pos 7 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 7 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 14%12/09
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength50%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -36.9%Ahead 1/4
1
5
OR 94
6/1
Air Invasion silks

Shannon Colson

Air Invasion

5yo Horse · 8-9

Air Force Blue - Curls In Place (Curlin)

Axel Concepcion0/1Martin Paramo
317594
4.0

Class Advantage

28/02 · C6 (higher class) · finish vs mark below28/02 · mark par28/0228/03 · C6 (higher class) · finish vs mark above28/03 · mark par30/04 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark below30/04 · mark par24/05 · C6 (higher class) · finish vs mark below24/05 · mark par19/07 · C7 · finish vs mark below19/07 · mark par22/08 · C0 · finish vs mark n/a22/08projClass-projected finish: 5th of 8
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼1
Strength48%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 7f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 20/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 3 · SP 20/1 | Actual: 75%28/02Pos 1 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 1 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 100%Pos 7 · SP 40/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 40/1 | Actual: 14%30/04Pos 5 · SP 20/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 5 · SP 20/1 | Actual: 33%Pos 9 · SP 40/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 9 · SP 40/1 | Actual: 11%19/07Pos 4 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 4 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 40%22/08
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength100%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +24.7%Ahead 4/4
6
4
OR 93
6/1
Prayforpeace silks

Jd Thoroughbreds Llc

Prayforpeace

7yo Gelding · 8-9

Liam's Map - Star Pearl (Tapit)

Mitchell Murrill60%0/1Chris Hartman60%
01D181
5.0

Class Advantage

13/12 · C8 · finish vs mark below13/12 · mark par13/126/02 · C8 · finish vs mark below6/02 · mark par19/02 · C8 · finish vs mark above19/02 · mark par13/03 · C7 · finish vs mark below13/03 · mark par12/04 · C7 · finish vs mark above12/04 · mark par2/05 · C6 (higher class) · finish vs mark below2/05 · mark par2/05projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 8
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 7f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 5 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 5 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 56%13/12Pos 12 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 12 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 0%Pos 1 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 1 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 100%19/02Pos 3 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 3 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 67%Pos 1 · SP 1/1 | Expected: 95%Pos 1 · SP 1/1 | Actual: 100%12/04Pos 8 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 8 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 36%2/05
Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▬
Strength67%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +4.0%Ahead 2/4
8
3
OR 90
20/1
Highly Flammable silks

Mark Milliner

Highly Flammable

7yo Gelding · 8-9

Munnings - Inflamed (Unusual Heat)

Fernando Cruz La De60%1/3Sergio Donjuan60%
122687
4.0

Class Advantage

20/03 · C8 · finish vs mark above20/03 · mark par20/0329/04 · C8 · finish vs mark below29/04 · mark par15/05 · C7 · finish vs mark below15/05 · mark par17/07 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark below17/07 · mark par9/08 · C6 (higher class) · finish vs mark below9/08 · mark par14/09 · C6 (higher class) · finish vs mark below14/09 · mark par14/09projClass-projected finish: 7th of 8
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength27%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 7f · 83%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 7/4 | Expected: 91%Pos 1 · SP 7/4 | Actual: 100%20/03Pos 2 · SP 7/4 | Expected: 91%Pos 2 · SP 7/4 | Actual: 75%Pos 2 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 2 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 67%15/05Pos 6 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 6 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 0%Pos 8 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 8 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 0%9/08Pos 7 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 14%14/09
Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 8-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -17.9%Ahead 1/4
2
6
OR 98
12/1
Unload silks

Steven Asmussen

Unload

6yo Gelding · 8-9

Gun Runner - Untapped (Tapit)

Keith Asmussen60%0/1Steven Asmussen60%
315433
5.0Class ↓4

Class Advantage

27/03 · C7 · finish vs mark below27/03 · mark par27/0319/04 · C7 · finish vs mark above19/04 · mark par3/05 · C7 · finish vs mark below3/05 · mark par27/06 · C0 · finish vs mark n/a26/08 · C7 · finish vs mark below26/08 · mark par12/09 · C7 · finish vs mark below12/09 · mark par12/09projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 8
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength14%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 7f · 67%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 4/6 | Expected: 96%Pos 3 · SP 4/6 | Actual: 67%27/03Pos 1 · SP 11/10 | Expected: 94%Pos 1 · SP 11/10 | Actual: 100%Pos 5 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 5 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 69%3/05Pos 4 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 4 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 50%Pos 3 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 3 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 67%26/08Pos 3 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 3 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 71%12/09
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 4-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength31%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -8.7%Ahead 0/4
3
8
OR 87
30/1
Bloodline silks

Jose Orantes

Bloodline

7yo Gelding · 8-9

Uncle Mo - A. P. Dream (A.p. Indy)

Walter Rodriguez60%0/5Jose Orantes
464420
4.0Going 8.0

Class Advantage

9/01 · C8 · finish vs mark below9/01 · mark par9/0119/02 · C8 · finish vs mark below19/02 · mark par5/03 · C8 · finish vs mark below5/03 · mark par28/03 · C7 · finish vs mark below28/03 · mark par22/05 · C8 · finish vs mark below22/05 · mark par10/06 · C8 · finish vs mark below10/06 · mark par10/06projClass-projected finish: 8th of 8
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 7f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 4 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 4 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 40%9/01Pos 6 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 6 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 29%Pos 4 · SP 11/4 | Expected: 86%Pos 4 · SP 11/4 | Actual: 57%5/03Pos 4 · SP 20/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 4 · SP 20/1 | Actual: 57%Pos 2 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 2 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 83%22/05Pos 11 · SP 40/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 11 · SP 40/1 | Actual: 9%10/06
Projected finish7th of 814% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength40%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +30.3%Ahead 3/4
7
7
OR 97
8/1
Dr. Storm silks

Yasmin Cardoso Bahena

Dr. Storm

5yo Gelding · 8-9

Vino Rosso - War Relic (Pulpit)

Summer Pauly60%Ismael Bahena
233856
4.0Going 8.0

Class Advantage

7/03 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark below7/03 · mark par7/0328/03 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark below28/03 · mark par1/05 · C6 (higher class) · finish vs mark below1/05 · mark par26/07 · C6 (higher class) · finish vs mark below26/07 · mark par6/08 · C7 · finish vs mark below6/08 · mark par12/09 · C7 · finish vs mark below12/09 · mark par12/09projClass-projected finish: 4th of 8
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼1
Strength35%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 7f · 83%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 2 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 83%7/03Pos 3 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 3 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 75%Pos 3 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 3 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 67%1/05Pos 8 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 8 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 13%Pos 5 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 5 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 50%6/08Pos 6 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 6 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 29%12/09
Projected finish8th of 80% of fieldRange 4-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength23%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -16.2%Ahead 1/4