14
Nelson Thoris
3yo Gelding · 0-0
Argentan · Prix Du Chateau De Carronges - Attele · 1m 6f 64y
#13
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | Vincennes | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-13 | Pornichet | 2 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Vincennes | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-05-26 | Vincennes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-21 | Vincennes | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-03-31 | Vincennes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1853% of fieldRange 1-18 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength60%
Delivery trend -15.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 18. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/03/2026 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 31/03/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 26/05/2026 | 5th | 2/1 | 89% | 20% | -0.69 |
| 13/08/2026 | 2nd | 18/1 | 5% | 89% | +0.84 |
| 24/08/2026 | 8th | 7/1 | 63% | 36% | -0.27 |