15:07 · Redcar

Weatherbys & Birdie Calendars Handicap (GBBPlus Race)

1m 2f 1yGoing TBCClass 43YO plusTURFHandicap12 runners
Ordered by projected finish
2
Top Pick1
OR 80
11/2
Percy's Daydream silks

Mmm Racing

4yo Filly · 10-0

Sir Percy - President's Seal (Aqlaam)

K Stott70%1/2D O'Meara60%
144452
6.0Going 8.0Class ↓3

Successful twice this season, the latest when making all at Beverley in June. After a couple of lesser efforts, did well under the circumstances when second over this C&D 2 weeks ago, faring best of those who raced prominently. Can make her presence felt.

Class Advantage

23/06 · C4 · finish vs mark above23/06 · mark par23/064/07 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark above4/07 · mark par17/07 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above17/07 · mark par26/07 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above26/07 · mark par13/08 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above13/08 · mark par9/09 · C4 · finish vs mark above9/09 · mark par9/09projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 12
Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move1
Strength73%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 2f 1y · 67%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 1 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 100%23/06Pos 4 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 4 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 25%Pos 4 · SP 20/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 4 · SP 20/1 | Actual: 40%17/07Pos 4 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 4 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 25%Pos 5 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 5 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 33%13/08Pos 2 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 2 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 90%9/09
Projected finish1st of 12100% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength100%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +15.5%Ahead 3/4
8
2
OR 73
8/1
Ciao Capo silks

Mrs L Jackson

3yo Gelding · 9-2

Lope Y Fernandez - Butterfly Kiss (Medaglia D'oro)

O J Orr60%3/5R A Fahey60%
411613
7.0

Has shown improved form upped to 1¼m this season, making it 3 wins from 4 starts when scoring cosily at Beverley in August. Ran to a similar level when third of 8 at the same course 25 days ago.

Class Advantage

16/04 · C6 · finish vs mark above16/04 · mark par16/0412/05 · C6 · finish vs mark above12/05 · mark par4/06 · C6 · finish vs mark above4/06 · mark par10/07 · C4 · finish vs mark above10/07 · mark par12/08 · C5 · finish vs mark above12/08 · mark par29/08 · C5 · finish vs mark above29/08 · mark par29/08projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 12
Class readPROGRESSIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move1
Strength30%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 2f 1y · 83%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 4 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 4 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 70%16/04Pos 1 · SP 11/4 | Expected: 86%Pos 1 · SP 11/4 | Actual: 100%Pos 1 · SP 11/10 | Expected: 94%Pos 1 · SP 11/10 | Actual: 100%4/06Pos 6 · SP 22/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 22/1 | Actual: 38%Pos 1 · SP 2/1 | Expected: 89%Pos 1 · SP 2/1 | Actual: 100%12/08Pos 3 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 3 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 71%29/08
Projected finish2nd of 1291% of fieldRange 2-7 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength67%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +10.3%Ahead 3/4
11
Market Fav4
OR 72
4/1
Saxophonist silks

Hambleton Racing Liv & Partner

3yo Gelding · 9-1

Saxon Warrior - Macheera (Machiavellian)

D Tudhope60%0/4D O'Meara60%
333522
6.0Going 8.0

Remains a maiden but again ran well when second of 5 at Haydock last time, never nearer having been denied a clear run. Could be in the mix once more.

Class Advantage

21/10 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a21/1024/04 · C5 · finish vs mark above24/04 · mark par27/05 · C5 · finish vs mark below27/05 · mark par18/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above18/06 · mark par23/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above23/07 · mark par8/08 · C5 · finish vs mark above8/08 · mark par8/08projClass-projected finish: 10th of 12
Class readPROGRESSIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move1
Strength16%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 2f 1y · 50%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 3 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 33%21/10Pos 3 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 3 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 67%Pos 3 · SP 11/8 | Expected: 93%Pos 3 · SP 11/8 | Actual: 0%27/05Pos 5 · SP 18/1 | Expected: 5%Pos 5 · SP 18/1 | Actual: 33%Pos 2 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 2 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 80%23/07Pos 2 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 2 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 75%8/08
Projected finish3rd of 1282% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength68%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -18.2%Ahead 1/4
4
6
OR 74
7/1
Optician silks

Michael Herrington Racing Club

6yo Gelding · 9-8

Expert Eye - Starlit Sands (Oasis Dream)

C J Whiteley60%1/3−5lbM Herrington
015293
6.0

Gained a first turf victory at Doncaster (1½m) in June. Form has been in-and-out since, but arrives on the back of a good third in 17-runner contest back at Doncaster (1¼m) 12 days ago. Capable of getting involved.

Class Advantage

31/05 · C4 · finish vs mark above31/05 · mark par31/0514/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above14/06 · mark par10/07 · C4 · finish vs mark above10/07 · mark par29/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above29/07 · mark par17/08 · C5 · finish vs mark below17/08 · mark par11/09 · C4 · finish vs mark above11/09 · mark par11/09projClass-projected finish: 4th of 12
Class readPROGRESSIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength23%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 2f 1y · 67%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 10 · SP 22/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 10 · SP 22/1 | Actual: 18%31/05Pos 1 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 1 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 100%Pos 5 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 5 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 56%10/07Pos 2 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 2 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 86%Pos 9 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 9 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 11%17/08Pos 3 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 3 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 88%11/09
Projected finish4th of 1273% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend
Strength76%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +3.4%Ahead 2/4
3
5
OR 77
12/1
Everyoneknowsadave silks

Mr Tony Hession

4yo Gelding · 9-11

Kodiac - Clubora (Medaglia D'oro)

Liam Wright60%0/1Jessica Macey
321428
5.0

Built on previous promise this season when winning at Nottingham in July and good effort when going close at Southwell last month. Had excuses (stumbled early) when eighth of 17 at Doncaster 12 days ago, so no surprise to see him bounce back.

Class Advantage

2/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above2/06 · mark par2/0613/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above13/06 · mark par18/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above18/07 · mark par3/08 · C4 · finish vs mark above3/08 · mark par31/08 · C5 · finish vs mark above31/08 · mark par11/09 · C4 · finish vs mark above11/09 · mark par11/09projClass-projected finish: 5th of 12
Class readPROGRESSIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength21%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 2f 1y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 3 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 71%2/06Pos 2 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 2 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 89%Pos 1 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 1 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 100%18/07Pos 4 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 4 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 25%Pos 2 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 2 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 83%31/08Pos 8 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 8 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 56%11/09
Projected finish5th of 1264% of fieldRange 6-12 · 68%
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength20%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -7.9%Ahead 2/4
5
7
OR 77
13/2
Domination silks

J Smith & W Bethell

3yo Gelding · 9-6

Dark Angel - Dr Simpson (Dandy Man)

S D Bowen60%1/3H Bethell
614133
7.0

Made it 2 wins from first 3 starts for this yard when scoring at Doncaster (1¼) in June. Has continued in good heart with a pair of third-place finishes since, the latest in 12-runner contest at Southwell (1½m) last month.

Class Advantage

15/10 · C5 · finish vs mark above15/10 · mark par15/1016/04 · C6 · finish vs mark above16/04 · mark par19/05 · C4 · finish vs mark above19/05 · mark par5/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above5/06 · mark par9/07 · C4 · finish vs mark above9/07 · mark par16/08 · C4 · finish vs mark above16/08 · mark par16/08projClass-projected finish: 1st of 12
Class readPROGRESSIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength32%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 2f 1y · 33%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 6 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 6 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 38%15/10Pos 1 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 1 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 100%Pos 4 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 4 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 63%19/05Pos 1 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 1 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 100%Pos 3 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 3 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 71%9/07Pos 3 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 3 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 82%16/08
Projected finish6th of 1255% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength66%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +11.8%Ahead 3/4
12
11
OR 66
10/1
Mayflower Billy silks

Mayflower Racing Club

3yo Gelding · 8-9

Tasleet - Darrfonah (Singspiel)

Rhys Elliott60%−5lbJessica Macey
825634
5.0

Has returned to form when making the frame last 2 starts, fourth of 11 at Chester on latest outing despite having had a tough draw. More needed, though, if he's to gain a breakthrough success.

Class Advantage

23/04 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a23/0416/05 · C6 · finish vs mark above16/05 · mark par11/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above11/06 · mark par2/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above2/07 · mark par31/08 · C5 · finish vs mark above31/08 · mark par11/09 · C5 · finish vs mark above11/09 · mark par11/09projClass-projected finish: 7th of 12
Class readPROGRESSIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move1
Strength20%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 2f 1y · 33%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 8 · SP 80/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 8 · SP 80/1 | Actual: 0%23/04Pos 2 · SP 40/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 2 · SP 40/1 | Actual: 92%Pos 5 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 5 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 56%11/06Pos 6 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 6 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 29%Pos 3 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 3 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 78%31/08Pos 4 · SP 20/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 4 · SP 20/1 | Actual: 70%11/09
Projected finish7th of 1245% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength95%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +32.3%Ahead 3/4
1
3
OR 82
7/1
Rizal silks

Victorious Forever

4yo Gelding · 10-2

Lope De Vega - Ridenza (Sea The Stars)

Darragh Keenan1/1George Scott
263114
6.0

Promise for Johnny Murtagh in 2025 and made second start for current yard a winning one in handicap at Doncaster (1¼m) in June. Comfortably followed up at Hamilton (1½m), before racing too freely when well held at Newmarket last month. Worth another chance back down in trip.

Class Advantage

9/09 · C7 · finish vs mark above9/09 · mark par9/094/10 · C7 · finish vs mark below4/10 · mark par4/03 · C5 · finish vs mark above4/03 · mark par26/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above26/06 · mark par17/07 · C4 · finish vs mark above17/07 · mark par21/08 · C4 · finish vs mark below21/08 · mark par21/08projClass-projected finish: 8th of 12
Class readPROGRESSIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move1
Strength12%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 2f 1y · 33%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 2 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 93%9/09Pos 6 · SP 10/3 | Expected: 82%Pos 6 · SP 10/3 | Actual: 71%Pos 3 · SP 5/2 | Expected: 87%Pos 3 · SP 5/2 | Actual: 82%4/03Pos 1 · SP 7/5 | Expected: 93%Pos 1 · SP 7/5 | Actual: 100%Pos 1 · SP 4/5 | Expected: 96%Pos 1 · SP 4/5 | Actual: 100%17/07Pos 4 · SP 8/11 | Expected: 96%Pos 4 · SP 8/11 | Actual: 0%21/08
Projected finish8th of 1236% of fieldRange 6-12 · 68%
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength10%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -22.4%Ahead 2/4
10
8
OR 72
10/1
Borjina silks

All About York And Whatton Manor Stud

3yo Filly · 9-1

Bated Breath - Borja (Lope De Vega)

P J McDonaldE Bethell
417253
5.0Going 7.0

Off the mark at Catterick (7f) on return and has taken her form up a notch in handicaps since, having excuses on penultimate start before getting back on track when third of 8 at Southwell (1m) 20 days ago. Interesting up in trip (stamina on dam's side of pedigree).

Class Advantage

25/09 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a25/0922/04 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a4/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above4/06 · mark par3/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above3/07 · mark par29/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above29/07 · mark par3/09 · C4 · finish vs mark above3/09 · mark par3/09projClass-projected finish: 6th of 12
Class readPROGRESSIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move1
Strength17%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 2f 1y

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 4 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 4 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 63%25/09Pos 1 · SP 4/9 | Expected: 98%Pos 1 · SP 4/9 | Actual: 100%Pos 7 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 7 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 33%4/06Pos 2 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 2 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 89%Pos 5 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 5 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 33%29/07Pos 3 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 3 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 71%3/09
Projected finish9th of 1227% of fieldRange 4-12 · 68%
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength26%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -15.6%Ahead 2/4
9
9
OR 68
20/1
His Finest Hour silks

Gary Downes And Howard Thompson

5yo Gelding · 9-2

Churchill - Jadwiga (Pivotal)

Joanna Mason0/2Miss T Jackson
623250
4.0Going 8.0

Positive signs at Ripon last month on first 2 starts for current connections, runner-up dropped back to 1m on second occasion. However, has taken backwards steps the last twice, down the field at Doncaster 12 days ago.

Class Advantage

14/09 · C4 · finish vs mark above14/09 · mark par14/0923/10 · C4 · finish vs mark above23/10 · mark par3/08 · C4 · finish vs mark above3/08 · mark par15/08 · C4 · finish vs mark above15/08 · mark par1/09 · C5 · finish vs mark above1/09 · mark par11/09 · C4 · finish vs mark above11/09 · mark par11/09projClass-projected finish: 11th of 12
Class readAT LEVEL
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength20%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 2f 1y · 83%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 6 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 6 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 50%14/09Pos 2 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 2 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 91%Pos 3 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 3 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 50%3/08Pos 2 · SP 22/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 2 · SP 22/1 | Actual: 89%Pos 5 · SP 5/2 | Expected: 87%Pos 5 · SP 5/2 | Actual: 33%1/09Pos 15 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 15 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 13%11/09
Projected finish10th of 1218% of fieldRange 3-12 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength19%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +8.7%Ahead 2/4
6
10
OR 72
14/1
Poet's Dawn silks

Mr Timothy O'gram & Partner

11yo Gelding · 9-6

Poet's Voice - Dudley Queen (Excellent Art)

Sean Kirrane60%4/7T D Easterby60%
111793
5.0
Cheek pieces

Has been enjoying a fine campaign with 5 victories, completing a hat-trick with success at Ripon in August. Soon left behind a couple of below-par efforts when third of 7 at Ripon 22 days ago, but is back up in grade here.

Class Advantage

18/07 · C4 · finish vs mark above18/07 · mark par18/0730/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above30/07 · mark par3/08 · C4 · finish vs mark above3/08 · mark par15/08 · C5 · finish vs mark below15/08 · mark par22/08 · C4 · finish vs mark below22/08 · mark par1/09 · C5 · finish vs mark above1/09 · mark par1/09projClass-projected finish: 9th of 12
Class readPROGRESSIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength30%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 2f 1y · 83%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 1 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 100%18/07Pos 1 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 1 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 100%Pos 1 · SP 2/1 | Expected: 89%Pos 1 · SP 2/1 | Actual: 100%3/08Pos 7 · SP 17/2 | Expected: 55%Pos 7 · SP 17/2 | Actual: 0%Pos 9 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 9 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 11%22/08Pos 3 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 3 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 67%1/09
Projected finish11th of 129% of fieldRange 5-12 · 68%
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength10%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -8.8%Ahead 2/4
7
12
OR 76
33/1
Night Wolf silks

Chalkstone Racing

3yo Gelding · 9-5

Kodi Bear - Apache Storm (Pivotal)

D Swift0/3S Spencer
5369
3.0

Encouraging debut for John & Sean Quinn last summer. However, he hasn't gone on from that for present stable, returning from a further 4 months off (gelded) when well held on handicap debut at Kempton (1m) in August. Back up in trip with cheekpieces tried last time discarded.

Class Advantage

22/08 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a22/0827/10 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a27/1029/04 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a29/0419/08 · C4 · finish vs mark below19/08 · mark par19/08projClass-projected finish: 12th of 12
Class readCLASS EDGE
OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move
Strength45%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 2f 1y · 25%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 5 · SP 40/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 5 · SP 40/1 | Actual: 67%22/08Pos 3 · SP 1/1 | Expected: 95%Pos 3 · SP 1/1 | Actual: 75%27/10Pos 6 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 0%29/04Pos 9 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 9 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 0%19/08
Projected finish12th of 120% of fieldRange 9-12 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength0%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +11.7%Ahead 1/4