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16:07 · Perth

Nairn's Oatcakes Novices' Limited Handicap Hurdle

2m 7f 207yGoing TBCClass 53YO plusTURFHandicap12 runners
Ordered by projected finish
2
2
OR 90
5/1
Fairly Fulling silks

Mr Gary Satchwell

Fairly Fulling

8yo Gelding · 11-8

Arcadio - Lonely Sky (Blueprint)

Nathan Moscrop60%1/6S Corbett80%
441P41
8.0Class ↓3
1st Cheekpieces +2Tongue strap

Belatedly off the mark in a 15-runner handicap at Newcastle (2½m) in March and added to his tally when seeing off 9 rivals over 2½m here in July. Raised 6 lb for that and isn't sure to be as effective back at 3m.

Class Advantage

13/11 · C5 · finish vs mark above13/11 · mark par13/115/12 · C5 · finish vs mark below5/12 · mark par26/12 · C5 · finish vs mark above26/12 · mark par14/03 · C5 · finish vs mark above14/03 · mark par9/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above9/06 · mark par2/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above2/07 · mark par2/07projClass-projected finish: 1st of 12
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength25%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 7f 207y · 17%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 2 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 89%13/11Pos 4 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 4 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 40%Pos 4 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 4 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 57%26/12Pos 1 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 1 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 100%Pos 4 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 4 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 73%9/06Pos 1 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 1 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 100%2/07
Projected finish1st of 12100% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +28.5%Ahead 3/4
5
Top Pick1
OR 84
9/2
Forest Spirit silks

Mrs Karen Smith

Forest Spirit

5yo Mare · 11-2

Waldgeist - Helisa (Elusive City)

James Bowen60%0/4M Bowen60%
327432
6.0
Cheek pieces

Looked suited by the step up in trip when close second of 11 in 23f Worcester handicap 13 days ago. Should go well again.

Class Advantage

21/04 · C5 · finish vs mark above21/04 · mark par21/0420/05 · C5 · finish vs mark above20/05 · mark par26/06 · C5 · finish vs mark below26/06 · mark par18/07 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark below18/07 · mark par23/08 · C5 · finish vs mark above23/08 · mark par10/09 · C5 · finish vs mark above10/09 · mark par10/09projClass-projected finish: 4th of 12
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength53%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 7f 207y · 33%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 3 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 67%21/04Pos 2 · SP 11/4 | Expected: 86%Pos 2 · SP 11/4 | Actual: 83%Pos 7 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 7 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 25%26/06Pos 4 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 4 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 0%Pos 3 · SP 20/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 3 · SP 20/1 | Actual: 83%23/08Pos 2 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 2 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 90%10/09
Projected finish2nd of 1291% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength74%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -0.4%Ahead 2/4
1
Market Fav3
OR 94
7/2
Seeyainthesuninn silks

Mr And Mrs Paul Chapman

Seeyainthesuninn

6yo Gelding · 11-12

Wings Of Eagles - Loxhill Lady (Supreme Leader)

Alice Stevens60%1/3Micky Hammond
73P141
8.0

Second Cartmel success of the summer when seeing off 11 rivals over 25f under Alice Stevens 25 days ago. Raised another 6 lb but still respected with the yard going well.

Class Advantage

13/11 · C5 · finish vs mark below13/11 · mark par13/111/04 · C5 · finish vs mark below1/04 · mark par24/04 · C5 · finish vs mark above24/04 · mark par28/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above28/06 · mark par20/07 · C5 · finish vs mark below20/07 · mark par29/08 · C5 · finish vs mark above29/08 · mark par29/08projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 12
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength21%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 7f 207y · 50%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 8 · SP 80/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 8 · SP 80/1 | Actual: 22%13/11Pos 7 · SP 28/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 28/1 | Actual: 40%Pos 3 · SP 20/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 3 · SP 20/1 | Actual: 78%24/04Pos 1 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 1 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 100%Pos 4 · SP 6/4 | Expected: 92%Pos 4 · SP 6/4 | Actual: 63%20/07Pos 1 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 1 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 100%29/08
Projected finish3rd of 1282% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength100%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +40.3%Ahead 3/4
7
4
OR 82
8/1
Anamanda silks

Turcan, Tulloch, Robertson, Walker

Anamanda

7yo Mare · 11-0

Reliable Man - Anyana (Nathaniel)

Bruce Lynn0/9N W Alexander
665542
5.0Going 8.0Class ↓3
Hood

A 3-time winner on the Flat in France but yet to win over hurdles. Creditable second at Musselburgh (3m) when last seen in March but only sixth in this race on last season's reappearance so perhaps a chance she'll need this first outing for 6 months.

Class Advantage

24/09 · C5 · finish vs mark below24/09 · mark par24/0925/10 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark below25/10 · mark par8/12 · C5 · finish vs mark below8/12 · mark par23/01 · C5 · finish vs mark below23/01 · mark par15/02 · C5 · finish vs mark above15/02 · mark par20/03 · C5 · finish vs mark above20/03 · mark par20/03projClass-projected finish: 5th of 12
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength39%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 7f 207y · 50%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 6 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 6 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 44%24/09Pos 6 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 6 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 29%Pos 5 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 5 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 20%8/12Pos 5 · SP 22/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 5 · SP 22/1 | Actual: 60%Pos 4 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 4 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 63%15/02Pos 2 · SP 5/2 | Expected: 87%Pos 2 · SP 5/2 | Actual: 80%20/03
Projected finish4th of 1273% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength66%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +15.5%Ahead 2/4
4
5
OR 86
8/1
Masterminding silks

S Young, D Moore & Djm

Masterminding

7yo Gelding · 11-4

Mastercraftsman - Enjoy Life (Acclamation)

Leah Noreci60%0/4−7lbJames Moffatt
762324
6.0Class ↓3

Has made the frame in Cartmel handicaps on all 4 outings since joining James Moffatt, finishing 9¼ lengths fourth of 12 to Seeyainthesuninn over 25f last time.

Class Advantage

30/10 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark below30/10 · mark par30/1022/12 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark below22/12 · mark par25/05 · C5 · finish vs mark above25/05 · mark par28/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above28/06 · mark par20/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above20/07 · mark par29/08 · C5 · finish vs mark above29/08 · mark par29/08projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 12
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength57%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 7f 207y · 50%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 7 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 7 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 25%30/10Pos 6 · SP 200/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 200/1 | Actual: 0%Pos 2 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 2 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 90%25/05Pos 3 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 3 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 78%Pos 2 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 2 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 88%20/07Pos 4 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 4 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 73%29/08
Projected finish5th of 1264% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength72%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +20.2%Ahead 3/4
6
8
OR 84
7/1
Magic Gloves silks

Mrs Wilma Duffus

Magic Gloves

5yo Mare · 11-2

Jet Away - Shamrock Queen (Alamo Bay)

D R Fox70%0/3L Russell & M Scudamore
448002
5.0
Tongue strap

Irish point winner who has a mixed record under Rules but took a step back in the right direction when second of 11 over C&D (good to firm) 39 days ago. Claims if she can back that up.

Class Advantage

11/10 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a11/108/12 · C5 · finish vs mark below8/12 · mark par15/02 · C5 · finish vs mark below15/02 · mark par23/04 · C5 · finish vs mark below23/04 · mark par7/06 · C5 · finish vs mark below7/06 · mark par15/08 · C5 · finish vs mark above15/08 · mark par15/08projClass-projected finish: 8th of 12
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 7f 207y · 17%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 4 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 4 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 40%11/10Pos 4 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 4 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 67%Pos 8 · SP 18/1 | Expected: 5%Pos 8 · SP 18/1 | Actual: 13%15/02Pos 10 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 10 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 31%Pos 10 · SP 22/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 10 · SP 22/1 | Actual: 18%7/06Pos 2 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 2 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 90%15/08
Projected finish6th of 1255% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +22.1%Ahead 4/4
3
7
OR 89
25/1
Les's Destiny Star silks

Mr Les De La Haye

Les's Destiny Star

7yo Gelding · 11-7

Blue Bresil - Spendajennie (Old Vic)

Callum Bewley0/1Ewan Whillans
843PP6
4.0
Tongue strap

Inconsistent for Ben Pauling. Made a respectable start for new yard when sixth of 9 at Cartmel (2¾m, good) in July but wouldn't be sure to build on it.

Class Advantage

9/03 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a9/0311/11 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a23/01 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a27/02 · C5 · finish vs mark below27/02 · mark par12/04 · C5 · finish vs mark below12/04 · mark par20/07 · C5 · finish vs mark below20/07 · mark par20/07projClass-projected finish: 7th of 12
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength24%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 7f 207y · 67%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 13 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 13 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 8%9/03Pos 4 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 4 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 40%Pos 8 · SP 40/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 8 · SP 40/1 | Actual: 42%23/01Pos 4 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 4 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 50%Pos 3 · SP 17/2 | Expected: 55%Pos 3 · SP 17/2 | Actual: 85%12/04Pos 6 · SP 22/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 22/1 | Actual: 38%20/07
Projected finish7th of 1245% of fieldRange 4-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength45%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +35.7%Ahead 4/4
10
6
OR 73
12/1
Luckie Devil silks

Tarzan Bloodstock

Luckie Devil

6yo Gelding · 10-5

Pillar Coral - Uimhir A Seacht (Millenary)

Ella McGarry60%−10lbN G Richards60%
24PPP9
4.0

Offered little in maiden/novice hurdles over 2m but did show ability in bumpers and no surprise were he to take a big step forward now handicapping over a much longer trip. All the more interesting if backed.

Class Advantage

3/03 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a3/037/05 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a7/052/07 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a2/07projClass-projected finish: 12th of 12
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength35%
Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 7f 207y

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 2 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 80%3/03Pos 4 · SP 10/3 | Expected: 82%Pos 4 · SP 10/3 | Actual: 40%7/05Pos 9 · SP 80/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 9 · SP 80/1 | Actual: 0%2/07
Projected finish8th of 1236% of fieldRange 3-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength22%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -13.8%Ahead 0/3
9
11
OR 76
33/1
Fortunes Dawn silks

Mr W G Young Jnr

Fortunes Dawn

7yo Mare · 10-8

Soldier Of Fortune - The Boys Dont Know (Flemensfirth)

Peter Kavanagh0/2W Young Jnr
479349
4.0

Seemed suited by the step up in trip when fourth of 11 on C&D handicap in August but well behind Seeyainthesuninn at Cartmel since.

Class Advantage

23/05 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a23/0521/06 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a12/07 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a15/08 · C5 · finish vs mark above15/08 · mark par29/08 · C5 · finish vs mark below29/08 · mark par29/08projClass-projected finish: 10th of 12
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength41%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 7f 207y · 40%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 7 · SP 125/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 125/1 | Actual: 33%23/05Pos 9 · SP 125/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 9 · SP 125/1 | Actual: 11%21/06Pos 3 · SP 250/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 3 · SP 250/1 | Actual: 50%12/07Pos 4 · SP 66/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 4 · SP 66/1 | Actual: 70%15/08Pos 9 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 9 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 27%29/08
Projected finish9th of 1227% of fieldRange 2-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength52%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +39.6%Ahead 4/4
8
10
OR 77
12/1
C'mon So silks

Miss Lucinda V Russell

C'mon So

5yo Gelding · 10-9

Elusive Pimpernel - Sail On (Robin Des Champs)

Miss Megan Davies0/3−10lbL Russell & M Scudamore
696643
5.0

Ex-Irish pointer (placed) who arrives on the back of respectable in-frame efforts over C&D on his last 2 outings. Jockey takes a handy 10 lb off. Considered.

Class Advantage

25/03 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a25/0313/04 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a24/04 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a6/06 · C5 · finish vs mark below6/06 · mark par2/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above2/07 · mark par7/09 · C5 · finish vs mark above7/09 · mark par7/09projClass-projected finish: 6th of 12
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength37%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 7f 207y · 33%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 6 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 6 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 58%25/03Pos 9 · SP 80/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 9 · SP 80/1 | Actual: 20%Pos 6 · SP 66/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 66/1 | Actual: 29%24/04Pos 6 · SP 18/1 | Expected: 5%Pos 6 · SP 18/1 | Actual: 44%Pos 4 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 4 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 67%2/07Pos 3 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 3 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 71%7/09
Projected finish10th of 1218% of fieldRange 5-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength44%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +16.6%Ahead 3/4
11
9
OR 73
12/1
Judicial Review silks

Racing In Furness

Judicial Review

8yo Gelding · 10-5

Getaway - Chartani (King's Theatre)

Danny McMenamin80%3/6James Moffatt60%
67P257
4.0
Cheek pieces

Patchy form over fences this summer and it remains to be seen whether this return to hurdles helps matters.

Class Advantage

28/12 · C5 · finish vs mark below28/12 · mark par28/1223/05 · C5 · finish vs mark below23/05 · mark par26/06 · C5 · finish vs mark below26/06 · mark par18/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above18/07 · mark par20/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above20/07 · mark par29/08 · C5 · finish vs mark below29/08 · mark par29/08projClass-projected finish: 11th of 12
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 7f 207y

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 9 · SP 28/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 9 · SP 28/1 | Actual: 38%28/12Pos 6 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 6 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 55%Pos 7 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 7 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 0%26/06Pos 2 · SP 20/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 2 · SP 20/1 | Actual: 89%Pos 5 · SP 5/2 | Expected: 87%Pos 5 · SP 5/2 | Actual: 50%20/07Pos 7 · SP 10/3 | Expected: 82%Pos 7 · SP 10/3 | Actual: 40%29/08
Projected finish11th of 129% of fieldRange 5-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength6%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -14.0%Ahead 1/4
12
12
OR 69
25/1
Autumn Getaway silks

Mrs K Elliott & Mrs E J Quinlan

Autumn Getaway

5yo Mare · 10-5

Getaway - Milly Lamb (Milan)

Sean Quinlan80%0/2Lizzie Quinlan60%
86755
3.0

Well held in bumpers/3 races over hurdles but more chance now handicapping from a basement mark. .

Class Advantage

14/06 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a14/0627/01 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a2/05 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a25/05 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a13/06 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a13/06projClass-projected finish: 9th of 12
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength56%
Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 7f 207y

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 8 · SP 28/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 8 · SP 28/1 | Actual: 0%14/06Pos 6 · SP 200/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 200/1 | Actual: 29%27/01Pos 7 · SP 150/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 150/1 | Actual: 14%2/05Pos 5 · SP 125/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 5 · SP 125/1 | Actual: 0%25/05Pos 5 · SP 150/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 5 · SP 150/1 | Actual: 50%13/06
Projected finish12th of 120% of fieldRange 4-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength40%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +23.2%Ahead 3/4