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13:05 · Goodwood

Virgin Bet Every Saturday Money Back Classified Stakes

1m 1f 197yGoing TBCClass 33YO plusTURF4 runners
Ordered by projected finish
4
Market Fav2
OR 93
6/4
Runman silks

Mr D P Howden

Runman

3yo Colt · 9-2

Frankel - Bella Nouf (Dansili)

Oisin Murphy70%2/4J & T Gosden60%
114018
5.0Going 8.0
Tongue strap

Landed 1m novices on his first 2 starts and bounced back from a below-par showing in Britannia at Royal Ascot to win 4-runner handicap at Newbury (1¼m, good to firm) in August. Found out in a hot 3-y-o handicap at Doncaster St Leger meeting since but can make his presence felt back in calmer waters.

Class Advantage

2/10 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a2/1028/04 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a19/05 · C4 · finish vs mark above19/05 · mark par18/06 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark above18/06 · mark par15/08 · C3 · finish vs mark above15/08 · mark par10/09 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark above10/09 · mark par10/09projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 4
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength27%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 1f 197y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 1 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 100%2/10Pos 1 · SP 1/12 | Expected: 100%Pos 1 · SP 1/12 | Actual: 100%Pos 4 · SP 6/4 | Expected: 92%Pos 4 · SP 6/4 | Actual: 70%19/05Pos 22 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 22 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 28%Pos 1 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 1 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 100%15/08Pos 8 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 8 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 30%10/09
Projected finish1st of 4100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength83%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -0.3%Ahead 2/4
2
3
OR 92
9/2
Nesthorn silks

The HaveHorseWillTravel Partnership

Nesthorn

4yo Gelding · 9-7

Expert Eye - Swiss Range (Zamindar)

Benoit D L Sayette60%0/4George Baker
777405
3.0Class ↓2

Dual winner in France who made a successful handicap/stable debut in Bahrain (1¼m) in December. Mostly respectable efforts back in Britain and likely to be on the premises here.

Class Advantage

30/01 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark below30/01 · mark par30/012/04 · C0 · finish vs mark n/a19/06 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark above19/06 · mark par11/07 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark above11/07 · mark par1/08 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark above1/08 · mark par6/09 · C3 · finish vs mark above6/09 · mark par6/09projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 4
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength54%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 1f 197y · 50%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 7 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 7 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 14%30/01Pos 7 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 7 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 14%Pos 7 · SP 100/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 100/1 | Actual: 63%19/06Pos 4 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 4 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 57%Pos 10 · SP 100/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 10 · SP 100/1 | Actual: 25%1/08Pos 5 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 5 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 71%6/09
Projected finish2nd of 467% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength98%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +29.0%Ahead 4/4
3
Top Pick1
OR 92
13/8
Plaid silks

Plaid Partnership & Mrs Mary Slack

Plaid

3yo Filly · 9-2

Ghaiyyath - On The Stage (Swiss Spirit)

Daniel Muscutt70%0/4J R Fanshawe60%
121534
6.0Going 9.0Class ↓2

Ghaiyyath filly who was an easy winner of a 9f Hamilton handicap in May. Third in listed race back there in July and another good effort when fourth of 14 in handicap at last month's York Ebor meeting (10.3f, good to soft). The one to beat.

Class Advantage

3/12 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a3/1230/03 · C5 · finish vs mark above30/03 · mark par17/05 · C3 · finish vs mark above17/05 · mark par7/06 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark above7/06 · mark par17/07 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark above17/07 · mark par21/08 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark above21/08 · mark par21/08projClass-projected finish: 1st of 4
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength51%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 1f 197y · 83%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 17/2 | Expected: 55%Pos 1 · SP 17/2 | Actual: 100%3/12Pos 2 · SP 6/5 | Expected: 94%Pos 2 · SP 6/5 | Actual: 80%Pos 1 · SP 2/1 | Expected: 89%Pos 1 · SP 2/1 | Actual: 100%17/05Pos 5 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 5 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 43%Pos 3 · SP 85/40 | Expected: 89%Pos 3 · SP 85/40 | Actual: 60%17/07Pos 4 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 4 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 77%21/08
Projected finish3rd of 433% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength54%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -10.8%Ahead 2/4
1
4
OR 93
7/1
Green Cape silks

Rabbah Racing

Green Cape

4yo Gelding · 9-7

Lope De Vega - Merimbula (Dalakhani)

W Buick70%S & E Crisford
149408
3.0Class ↓2
Tongue strap

Handicap winner in France last year but raced too keenly when tailed off in handicaps over 1¾m and 1½m at Ascot this summer. The return to 1¼m may help but arrives with a point to prove.

Class Advantage

25/05 · C0 · finish vs mark n/a25/0519/06 · C0 · finish vs mark n/a24/07 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a16/01 · C0 · finish vs mark n/a16/06 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark below16/06 · mark par11/07 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark below11/07 · mark par11/07projClass-projected finish: 4th of 4
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼1
Strength49%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 1f 197y · 50%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 5 · SP 10/3 | Expected: 82%Pos 5 · SP 10/3 | Actual: 69%25/05Pos 1 · SP 10/3 | Expected: 82%Pos 1 · SP 10/3 | Actual: 100%Pos 4 · SP 17/2 | Expected: 55%Pos 4 · SP 17/2 | Actual: 57%24/07Pos 9 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 9 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 27%Pos 16 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 16 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 0%16/06Pos 8 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 8 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 0%11/07
Projected finish4th of 40% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength67%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -5.9%Ahead 0/4