17
Marzipan
4yo Colt · 0-0
Argentan · Prix Du Chateau Des Ducs D'alencon - Attele · 1m 6f 64y
#8
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | Enghien | 3 | 0 | ||
| 2026-06-05 | Toulouse | 2 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Vincennes | 1 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-04-24 | Vincennes | 1 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-08-16 | Vincennes | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-07-26 | Enghien | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish15th of 1818% of fieldRange 16-18 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -8.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 15th of 18. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/04/2025 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 89% | +0.73 |
| 20/05/2025 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 85% | +0.69 |
| 06/06/2025 | 4th | 28/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 05/07/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 79% | +0.42 |
| 26/07/2025 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 16/08/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 24/04/2026 | 10th | 80/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 02/05/2026 | 9th | 125/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 05/06/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 82% | -0.05 |