16
Mistral Castelle
4yo Colt · 0-0
Argentan · Prix Du Chateau Des Ducs D'alencon - Attele · 1m 6f 64y
#18
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#18
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Lisieux | 2 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-21 | Vincennes | 1 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2025-11-06 | Vincennes | ? | 0 | ||
| 2025-10-24 | Vincennes | ? | 0 | ||
| 2025-10-12 | Graignes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-09-28 | Vincennes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish17th of 186% of fieldRange 3-18 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength43%
Delivery trend -3.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 17th of 18. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/01/2025 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 12/04/2025 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 64% | +0.37 |
| 10/05/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 60% | +0.13 |
| 14/06/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 88% | +0.51 |
| 23/08/2025 | 3rd | 18/1 | 5% | 80% | +0.75 |
| 28/09/2025 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 86% | +0.03 |
| 12/10/2025 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 64% | -0.02 |
| 21/03/2026 | 11th | 66/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 29/08/2026 | 5th | 66/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |