1
Mistral Janeiro
4yo Colt · 0-0
Argentan · Prix Du Chateau Des Ducs D'alencon - Attele · 1m 6f 64y
#16
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#16
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Cabourg | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Cabourg | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-21 | Cabourg | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Enghien | 3 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-01 | Nantes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-12 | Vincennes | ? | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 1824% of fieldRange 7-14 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength44%
Delivery trend -2.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 14th of 18. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/03/2026 | 8th | 80/1 | 0% | 46% | +0.46 |
| 18/03/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 62% | +0.62 |
| 27/03/2026 | 3rd | 22/1 | 0% | 86% | +0.86 |
| 18/04/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 69% | +0.69 |
| 01/06/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 73% | +0.46 |
| 26/06/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 46% | +0.46 |
| 21/07/2026 | 3rd | 40/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 07/08/2026 | 8th | 18/1 | 5% | 42% | +0.36 |
| 25/08/2026 | 8th | 22/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |