10
Muscdarche
4yo Colt · 0-0
Argentan · Prix Du Chateau Des Ducs D'alencon - Attele · 1m 6f 64y
#12
Rank
Odds
22/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.3
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Lisieux | 2 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Vichy | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Toulouse | 2 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-18 | Vichy | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-11 | Vincennes | 3 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-03-02 | Caen | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 1829% of fieldRange 8-18 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength22%
Delivery trend -1.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 13th of 18.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/05/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 21/09/2025 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 09/10/2025 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 02/03/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 77% | +0.51 |
| 11/04/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 46% | +0.09 |
| 18/05/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 75% | +0.28 |
| 05/06/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 91% | +0.38 |
| 15/06/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 38% | -0.20 |
| 29/08/2026 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 58% | +0.58 |