4
Codrea
2yo Colt · 9-2
Chantilly · Prix Des Terriers Du Houx Maiden · 7f 209y
#4
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
5%
Place Prob
11%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼4
Strength91%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.0 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.5
Today:
Class gap: +3.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | Compiegne | ? | 5th | 1st | +4 |
| 2026-06-20 | Compiegne | ? | 4th | 0th | +4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 3-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength69%
Delivery trend -22.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06/2026 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 10/07/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |