2
Mister Charmes
3yo Gelding · 8-13
Chantilly · Prix De Mours Stakes · 7f 209y
#1
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
90%
Place Prob
66%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength46%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.7 /10 (raw 2.5)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.5
Today:
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Deauville | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Compiegne | 2 | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
| 2026-06-24 | Chantilly | 2 | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-06-08 | Angers | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-21 | Le Mans | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-20 | Le Mans | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength81%
Delivery trend -5.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/03/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 88% | +0.14 |
| 21/04/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 08/06/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 78% | +0.41 |
| 24/06/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 17% | -0.41 |
| 28/07/2026 | 2nd | 17/2 | 55% | 88% | +0.32 |
| 25/08/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |