4
Aria Fresca
2yo Filly · 8-11
Chantilly · Prix De La Montignette Handicap · 5f 212y
#1
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
99%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Chantilly | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-25 | Deauville | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Compiegne | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-10 | Compiegne | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-28 | Saint-Cloud | 3 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1160% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength30%
Delivery trend -10.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06/2026 | 5th | 50/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 10/07/2026 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 28/07/2026 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 25/08/2026 | 7th | 5/2 | 87% | 25% | -0.62 |
| 04/09/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |