2
Hello Carel
3yo Gelding · 8-13
Chantilly · Prix Du Cabinet Des Gemmes Stakes · 5f 212y
#1
Rank
Odds
9/1
Win Prob
93%
Place Prob
61%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength63%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.2
Today:
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | ParisLongchamp | 3 | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2026-08-02 | Le Lion D'angers | 2 | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-07-16 | Compiegne | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-02 | Senonnes-Pouance | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-04 | Craon | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-13 | Fontainebleau | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength90%
Delivery trend +2.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/12/2025 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 67% | +0.61 |
| 29/01/2026 | 8th | 28/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 17/02/2026 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 25% | -0.33 |
| 13/03/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 04/06/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 02/07/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 80% | +0.14 |
| 16/07/2026 | 1st | 11/1 | 42% | 100% | +0.58 |
| 02/08/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 57% | -0.06 |
| 10/09/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 86% | +0.70 |