1
Mai Dire Mai
3yo Gelding · 9-4
Chantilly · Prix Du Cabinet Des Gemmes Stakes · 5f 212y
#2
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼2
Strength51%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.0
Today:
Class gap: +1.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | Deauville | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Chantilly | 1 | 7th | 3rd | +4 |
| 2026-04-23 | ParisLongchamp | 1 | 15th | 11th | +4 |
| 2026-04-01 | La Teste De Buch | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-11-28 | Deauville | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-28 | Chantilly | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength57%
Delivery trend -0.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/07/2025 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 14/08/2025 | 8th | 8/1 | 58% | 46% | -0.12 |
| 17/10/2025 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 80% | +0.09 |
| 28/10/2025 | 3rd | 5/6 | 96% | 67% | -0.29 |
| 28/11/2025 | 5th | 13/8 | 91% | 33% | -0.58 |
| 01/04/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 23/04/2026 | 15th | 25/1 | 0% | 7% | +0.07 |
| 31/05/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 12/07/2026 | 8th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |